The president is elected to a six-year term by the Parliament (whose members are popularly elected, and frequently assassinated). Lahoud has been in office nine years thanks to the ease with which Parliament has amended the Constitution on several occasions to accommodate extensions. Lahoud was Syria's man in Lebanon (at least one of Syria's many men), and back then when Syria demanded an extension to its chosen president's term, Syria got what it wanted.
But Syria's occupation force is gone. The pro-Western government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora is hanging on, barely. The opposition, led by two big Shiite blocs--Hezbollah and Amal--as well as by Christian Gen. Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, have so far refused to agree to a compromise candidate. Hezbollah, ironically, is pushing Aoun for president (the Lebanese Constitution requires the president to be a Maronite Christian, which Aoun is). Should no agreement be reached, Lebanon risks splintering into two governments or worse: a resumption of the civil war that demolished the country between 1975 and 1990. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned Lebanon last Friday that it was nearing "the brink of an abyss" if it couldn't resolve its presidential crisis, and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, in Lebanon for the sixth time in six months, essentially yelled at Lebanese parliamentarians to get their act together or suffer the consequences: "France will let the whole world know," he said, "who is responsible for this situation." But as all things Lebanese and political, it's a collective effort at self-destruction.
And it wouldn't be the first time Lebanon would have a divided government, or a divided government anda war on its hands. That was the situation in 1988-89 when, after the expiation of Amin Gemayel's term as president, the Lebanese National Assembly failed to muster a quorum to elect a new president. Christian leaders and Syria, which had 25,000 troops in Lebanon, couldn’t agree on a compromise candidate. A constitutional vacuum, and outbreaks of bloody violence, ensued. Muslims set up their own government. And--who else--Michel Aoun set up his. Only an agreement brokered between members of Parliament in the Saudi town of Taif ended the stalemate--and the war. The agreement redrew the political map, diluting Christian power and essentially declaring Aoun an outlaw. He fled to Paris.
There's more than the smell of revenge in Aoun's nostrils, now that he's back and riding what appears to be a strong wave of discontent for the government, which did not live up to its promise to unite Lebanon. The days ahead may well plunge Lebanon into war again. But the alarmists shouldn't have all the fun. Lebanon has been in this situation before: it hasn't had a quiet election since 1970. And the country is nothing if not surprising.
Here's a complete history of Lebanon's elections since independence in the mid-1940s.
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