Poll of Arab American Voters: Obama Over McCain, 54%-33%

If Michelle Malkin and Sean Hannity could see this: Arab American poll workers in Dearborn, Michigan, check in voters at a polling station during the 2004 presidential election. Arab American voter participation is among the highest of any immigrant group (88%). (Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)

He may not have won the election, but when John Kerry carried Michigan by a mere 165,000 votes in 2004, he had Arab American voters (most of them Lebanese, Syrian and Chaldean) to thank. Nationally, Arab Americans had voted for Bush by close to a 2-1 margin in 2000. They weren't fooled twice. They voted for Kerry by a 10 to 1 margin in 2004.

Arab American voters account for 5% of the voting population in Michigan, 2% in Virginia, 1.5 to 2% in Ohio, and 1.5% in Pennsylvania and Florida. In those battleground states, where winning margins tend to be defined by the nick of razors, no minority can be either ignored or taken for granted.

Arab Americans once were scorned: Bob Dole, Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis--they all purposefully either refused Arab American endorsements or refused to meet with Arab American groups in the 1980s and 1990s. No longer. They're now courted and occasionally championed as fervently as the next minority, at least publicly.

This week, Zogby International, the polling organization owned by a Lebanese American (one of my compatriots in exile), released a poll of 501 Arab Americans showing Barack Obama comfortably ahead of John McCain, 54%-33%.

On closer inspection though a couple of interesting details crop up. Obama's advantage is overwhelming among Muslims. Among Catholics and Maronite Christians, most of whom are Lebanese, McCain is actually ahead, 53%-31%. Abortion can't be the difference: if anything, Lebanese Christians are more tolerant than Muslims of abortion, and--like McCain in his pre-electioneering incarnation--less inclined to give in to evangelical hot-button issues.

Other poll findings among Arab Americans:

• Women prefer Obama over McCain by a 68%-20% margin, while men pick Obama by a bare 46-45% margin.
• Independent Arab Americans are split 44%44% between the two candidates.
• 46% of Arab Americans are registered Democratic, the highest rate since Zogby began polling in 1996, when 38% were registered Democratic. Only 20% are registered Republican today, compared with 36% in 1996. Some 19% are registered Independent, compared with 23% in 1996.
• When Ralph Nader and other candidates are included, Obama's advantage falls to 46% while McCain stays relatively steady at 32%. Nader garners 6%. Let's not forget: Nader is of Lebanese origin, so there's a bit of an American Idol factor in play here.
• Why McCain? Those who say they want him don't cite their party affiliation, domestic issues or even foreign policy as a principal reason. The main reason is "I like him as a man. (18% are voting McCain expressly to vote anti-Democratic.)
• Why Obama? By a decisive 40%, domestic issues. (Just 12% say they're voting for him because they like him as a man, though 20% are expressly voting anti-Republican.)
• The most important issue for all those polled, regardless of their choice? 63% say jobs or the economy, almost double the next category--the war in Iraq, 37%. Health care comes in at 20%, gas prices at 16%, and terrorism/national security at a paltry 10%. In that regard, Arab Americans are very much like the rest of America's voters. Oh, and Palestine or Lebanon as issues? Barely 2%, although this is more worrisome: not a single percent registered civil liberties as a concern. (Don't tell my About colleague Tom Head. He'd be apoplectic, though I very much am too.)

For a full analysis and history of how Arab Americans have been voting since 1996, see my piece, "How Arab Americans Vote: Trends and Projections From 1996 to 2008."

See Also:

• State By State Breakdown of Arab American Populations in 11 Largest States
• Barack Obama's Middle East Policy
• Joe Biden's Middle East Policy
• John McCain's Middle East Policy
• Sarah Palin's Middle East Policy
• Sarah Palin in Arab and Middle Eastern Eyes
• Barack Obama Through Middle Eastern Eyes