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Boom to Bumps: Turbulence Ahead for Mideast's Airlines

From Pierre Tristam, About.com GuideFebruary 24, 2009

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The Middle East has been experiencing the fastest air traffic growth of any region in the past couple of years--18.1% in passenger traffic, 10.1% in freight traffic, for combined profits of $300 million in 2007, according to the the International Air Transport Association.

Despite record-high oil prices and the slowing economy, the Middle East continued to lead the world in traffic growth in 2008: 7% in passenger traffic, 6.3% in freight traffic, compared with worldwide growth of just 1.6% in passenger traffic and a drop of 4% in cargo traffic (usually an indicator of what's ahead), according to Majdi Sabri, IATA’s Regional Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa. In more human numbers, some 160 million passengers flew in, out and within the Middle East in 2008. The 10 leading airports in the region (such as those in Beirut, Cairo, Doha, Dubai and King Abdulaziz International Airport in Saudi Arabia) are expected to have an annual passenger capacity of 320 million passengers.

Is it any wonder the Middle East's carriers plan to spend $50 billion on infrastructure improvements and $75 billion on new planes to double their fleet to 1,300 aircraft over the next 10 years? (Investments include $6.8 billion to expand Abu Dhabi International Airport, $5.5 billion for Doha International Airport, and $11.3 billion to modernize King Abdulaziz International.)

But Sabri, who spoke in Dubai at an aviations-based conference sponsored by the London-based Middle East Business Intelligence, predicts bleak times ahead. The Middle East's carriers lost $100 million in 2008 and are are projected to lose $200 million in 2009, compared with global losses totaling $5 billion in 2008 and a projected $2.5 billion in 2009. The losses would have been steeper had the price of oil not plummeted in the second half of the year. But lower oil prices didn't compensate for a global recession.

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