Can Iran Build a Bomb?

Speaking on CNN's "State opf the Union" Sunday, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iran now has enough fissile material to make a nuclear bomb.

Meanwhile on NBC's Meet the Press, Defense Secretary Robert Gates had an entirely different story: "They're not close to a stockpile, they're not close to a weapon at this point and so there is some time. And the question is whether you can increase the level of the sanctions and the cost to the Iranians of pursuing that program at the same time you show them an open door if they want to engage with the Europeans, with us and so on if they walk away from that program."

Gates made a more salient point: "Our chances of being successful, it seems to me, are a lot better at $35 or $40 oil than they were at $140 oil because there are economic costs to this program, they do have economic challenges at home."

So which is it?

On Feb. 19, the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency revealed that Iran had under-reported the amount of fissile material it had amassed, and that the amount, more than a ton, "was sufficient, with added purification, to make an atom bomb," according to a Times report. Iran, for its part, after busily playing film critic, was quick to bat off westerly fears that it was going nuclear for any other reason than electricity production.

But as always, the more the United States frets, the stronger the Iranian position (as long as Israel doesn't attack): Iran's strategy is to push its luck to the limit and extract as many concessions from the West as possible, if and when it takes negotiations over its nuclear future seriously. Short of being bombed, it has nothing to lose. Even if it is bombed, it's not going to lose much--not nearly as much as whoever bombs it.