Iran Pulls Triggers as US Troops Pull Back in Iraq

There is little relationship between what Arab leadders say publicly and what they say privately. Publicly, they take on the language of tabloids, they channel the reactionary mood of streets and coffee shops. They do what Fox News does in the United States: they huff, puff and bloviate for public consumption at the lowest common denominator, for maximum ratings.

So it was when Iraq's prime minister, Nour al-Maliki--a neo-authoritarian in the making--described the withdrawal of American troops from Iraqi cities on June as a "great victory," an end to occupation, and a thwarting of foreign forces comparable to the Iraqi rebellion against British occupation in 1920.

Privately, al-Maliki is likely more polite, knowing that even as American bases close across Iraq, 130,000 U.S. troops are still on Iraqi soil and can, at the Iraqi government's request, conduct patrols, bash in Iraqi doors and make arrests, as they have since invading the country in March 2003. They may have to. No sooner had an American base closed in Sadr City last week, the sprawling Shiite neighborhood in Baghdad, than a bomb killed almost 80 people and wounded 150, a bloody signal that all is not well in "victorious" Iraq. The following day, seven bombs exploded across the country, killing scores.

That Sadr City base was one of 150 that U.S. troops closed. But it's not as if Americans have truly withdrawn.

• U.S. troops still have some 25 bases from which they're operating.
• The U.S. military still flies helicopters unimpeded, a symbolic presence in the skies above Iraq that reminds Iraqis who still has the most firepower.
• Even in the cities, thousands of U.S. troops will still be "advising" Iraqi troops on a daily basis. In the past (remember Vietnam), U.S. advisers' role was often indistinguishable from that of combat soldiers.

The uptick in bombings may have little to do with the withdrawal of U.S. troops and more to do with Iran, ticked off at the Obama administration for its response to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's fraudulent re-election, sending the message that it still can trigger what mayhem it pleases across the border. "Shiite militia leaders," the Wall Street Journal reports, "say a toughening resolve among hard-liners in Iran is translating into direct orders from Iran-based leaders to increase attacks, as well as inspiring militants next door in Iraq to demonstrate their influence."

In other words it doesn't matter what U.S. troops' address may be in Iraq. As long as they're "in country," Iraq remains a target.