Lethal Mingling: Hezbollah's hold on Lebanon makes resistance seem futile. (Salah Malkawi/Getty Images)
You have to give it to Hezbollah. The former Lebanese Shiite terrorist organization turned political party, which still maintains Lebanon's most powerful militia, knows how to take thuggishness to a whole different level. The faction doesn't have to send its suicide bombers on missions to make its point anymore. That's so 90s.
And let's be clear: Aside from civilian hostages it took in the 1980s, which were indisputable acts of terrorism, Hezbollah's targets have been military--the Israeli occupation until 2000, and then skirmishes with Israeli patrols, and of course the 2006 war. That's why calling Hezbollah a terrorist organization, still, is simplistic, and misses the point. Hezbollah's rain of missiles on Israeli civilian zones in 2006 was different from Israel's rain of bombs on Lebanese civilian zones only to the extent that Israel's rain was more like a monsoon, a Hezbollah's more of a drizzle. This is not to defend Hezbollah in the least: the faction still glorifies death more than it knows peace, it still pretends to be Lebanon's defender when it has become the chief obstacle to its recovery, and it is still driven by a fanatical, regressively theocratic ideology that should have no place in politics or in pluralist Lebanon. But as a indiscriminately destructive force, it cannot compare to the Israeli military.
That said, Hezbollah's beef these days is not with Israel, but with Lebanon itself--in other words, Hezbollah is fomenting war with itself, since Hezbollah is essentially a Lebanese organization. It should not be confused with Iran, even if Iran is, or tries to be--in competition with Syria--Hezbollah's chief sponsor. One thing to remember about Hezbollah in particular and the Lebanese in general: they may have sponsors, but they drive those sponsors nuts, the way Israel can drive the United States nuts, because sponsorship seldom means control. Ultimately, Hezbollah decides its own fate in Lebanon just as Israel decides its own in Israel, regardless of the dollars and missiles both get from their supplies.
But Hezbollah is against the ropes, reputation wise. It can no longer claim to be Lebanon's liberator since Israel has left Lebanese territory (though Hezbollah still banks mostly on its bogus image of a "resistance" army). Its legitimacy as a team player in Lebanon is nil, especially after its thuggish seizure of Beirut in 2008, to make the point that it alone is the reigning military force inside Lebanon. And now some of its members are about to be indicted by a United Nations-backed tribunal for their role in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. That's been causing a furor within Hezbollah, which is threatening war again.
"Simply put," Thanassis Cambanis, author of A Privilege to Die: Inside Hezbollah's Legions and Their Endless War Against Israel, wrote in The Times, "Hezbollah cannot afford the blow to its popular legitimacy that would occur if it is pinned with the Hariri killing. The group's power depends on the unconditional backing of its roughly 1 million supporters. Its constituents are the only audience that matters to Hezbollah, which styles itself as sole protector of Arab dignity from humiliation by Israel and the United States. These supporters will be hard-pressed to understand, much less forgive, their party if it is proved to have killed a leader who was loved by the nation's Sunni Muslims and also respected by Christians, Druze and even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah's core support. That is why Hezbollah denies any role in the assassination even though it has unabashedly taken responsibility for destabilizing moves like setting off the 2006 war with Israel or pushing Lebanon to the brink of civil war in 2008."
On Tuesday, Hezbollah's members of the Lebanese parliament resigned, forcing a collapse of the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Rafik's son, who is a Sunni.
What next?
Read the full analysis: "Hezbollah, Lebanon and the Hariri Tribunal: How Hezbollah Is Holding Lebanon Hostage."
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