Horrific events in Houla will haunt Syria for a long time to come. Human Rights Watch has published a reconstruction of the massacre: the number of child victims brutally murdered at close range makes it the most shocking event in the story of the Syrian uprising so far.
What next? Most of Damascus market areas yesterday joined an unprecedented general strike in protest against regime violence, as Kofi Annan's peace plan lies in tatters. However, it doesn't look like Houla it's a game-changer in Russia's relations with Bashar al-Assad, although some commentators seem to think so.
Read my new piece on why Russia supports the Syrian regime.
Actually, Monday's UN Security Council resolution did not unequivocally blame the Syrian government for the summary executions in Houla, and most statements coming from Russian diplomats suggest no sea of change in Moscow's backing for its sole Arab ally.
I am still positive Russians have no illussions over the long-term survival chances of Assad's coterie, but they're nowhere close to cutting him loose just yet. Bilateral trade is up, and shipments of arms keep docking at the Tartous port.
Oh, and a group of Western countries, spearheaded by the US and UK, today expelled Syrian ambassadors in protest against the ongoing violence in Syria. What a blow. With Russian weapons and Iranian money, Assad could hardly care less.
Photo by Pool/Getty Images
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Russia and China are not known for their respect of human rights. Frankly they don’t give a damn. For China, commercial interests are more important than principles. For Russia a naval base in the Syria coastal town of Tartous is more important than the lives of thousands of Syrians.
In January 2007 Russia and China vetoed a resolution against the Burmese military junta in Myanmar. In July 2008 both Russia and China rejected sanctions against the Robert Mugabe’s odious regime in Zimbabwe. In October 2011 they vetoed a resolution condemning Syria which would have been the first such legally binding move adopted by the Security Council since the Syrian Regime began using its military machine against protesters in mid-March 2011 in the town of Deraa.
Nope, human rights have nothing to do with the issue. Russia wants to protect its commercial and strategic interests in Syria and prove the larger point about “non-interference” in affairs of sovereign states. But going long-term, I really think Russians have no particular confidence in Assad, and will become increasingly desparate to find a face-saving exit: some sort of a transition agreement that safeguards all those (unpaid) weapons contracts. Untill then, more Houla to come. Or am I too pessimistic?