Thursday May 3, 2012
"There's nothing happening. I know people who live there and it's all very quiet and peaceful", said Bernie Ecclestone, the indomitable Formula One's chief.
You got to hand it to him. By insisting on holding the Grand Prix in Bahrain, after more than a year of state repression against largely peaceful protests demanding greater democracy, he's just made sure that the often-forgotten crisis in Bahrain hits the world headlines once again. Opposition groups have called for "Days of Rage" this weekend and the capital Manama is under lockdown amid security concerns.
It all seems almost criminally irresponsible. So why do it? Grand Prix is the flagship project of Bahrain's quest for a global brand, and a lot of money is at stake. But the government also wanted to show the world that the country is back to normal. Only it isn't, as you can see in this latest report on Bahrain by Amnesty International, which suggests little has changed.
Read more on the five reasons why the crisis in Bahrain won't go away: a struggle over power, political rights and economic opportunities, but one made intractable by Sunni-Shiite tension and regional politics.
Photo by Reuters.
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Thursday May 3, 2012
So here we are. First Friday protests since the Syrian government agreed to implement the six-point peace plan of the joint UN-Arab League Envoy Kofi Annan. It's the second day of a fragile ceasefire, which appears to be holding, just about. The tension is razor sharp, but it has been the calmest 48 hours Syria has seen for more than 9 months, since anti-government protests escalated into ever deadlier clashes between Syrian government forces and groups affiliated with the rebel Free Syrian Army.
Putting your money on what's going to happen over the next week is an extremely risky bet. Agreeing to withdraw troops from population centers and cease military operations was a major gamble for President Bashar al-Assad, and I am certain he would never have done it without pressure from Russia and China. The regime fears, quite rightly, that any let up in the crackdown will be used by the protesters to reclaim the streets, while fighters from the Free Syrian Army continue to stock weapons.
The impending "political process" mentioned by the peace plan exists only on paper. My guess is that we'll see a lull in the fighting before any potential negotiations between the Syrian government and the opposition inevitably break down.
Read my new piece on the Free Syrian Army, the first in a series of articles covering the Syrian opposition.
Thursday May 3, 2012
The BBC has revealed new embarassing evidence of UK involvement in the rendition of Libyans suspected of terrorism to the regime of late Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi. The cozy relationship between the West and Qaddafi's secret police during the "war on terror" is of course no secret, but this is the first time a direct link has been established between British intelligence services and Musa Kusa, Qaddafi's spy chief.
A letter dated to 2004 has been discovered in Libya last year, in which a senior MI6 officer congratulates his Libyan pals on the "arrival of the cargo". The "cargo" in question is no other than Abdel Hakim Belhaj, who last year worked with NATO in bringing down the Qaddafi's regime, and who heads the Tripoli Military Council!
Behaj is suing the UK for its role in his extradition to Libya where he claims he was tortured. How ironic that without the UK turning on Qaddafi in 2011, Belhaj wouldn't become one of the most powerful men in Libya. More juicy detail to follow soon.
Photo by Reuters: Abdel Hakim Belhadj.
Read more on Belhaj in my profile article, and see here for a gripping report on renditions to Libya published by The Guardian.
Thursday May 3, 2012
The Arab League summit in the Iraqi capital Baghdad was probably the last chance for Arab leaders to agree on a common policy toward the uprising in Syria, following several failed attempts at mediation in the crisis. And they failed again. Arab governments took the safe option and backed the peace plan put forward by UN envoy Kofi Annan: a call for a ceasefire, but no joint position on the fate of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his regime.
Bitter divisions between Arab states remain. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council advocate a tough approach to the Syrian regime, Iran's key Arab ally. This position is shared by Jordan, Morocco, and the new governments in Tunisia and Libya. Iraq and Lebanon, whose current governments both enjoy closer ties with Iran, reject sanctions on Assad and refuse to back the Syrian opposition. Egypt, whose energy is sapped by political transition at home, is also wary of direct involvement in Syria.
What next? Assad has accepted the UN peace plan but under the condition that foreign governments stop supporting armed groups in Syria. Saudis and Qataris have earlier called for military assistance to the Syrian opposition and I don't think they will back off. But whatever course the Gulf Arabs take, they will certainly give up on the Arab League and go it alone.
I go in more detail on why Saudi Arabia supports Syrian opposition here: "Saudi Arabia and Syrian Uprising".
Photo by AFP: Arab League leaders and envoys in Baghdad, Iraq, March 2012
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