Tiananmen Forebodings in Cairo

Whose Egypt? A nation attempts to redefine itself. (Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images)

As the United States continues its shameless, continued support for Hosni Mubarak's regime--Secretary of State Hillary Clinton this morning called for free and fair elections, but not an end to the Mubarak presidency--something unsettling and worrisome is taking place on the ground in Cairo and in the air over the capital.

Fighter jets--American-made F-16's--have buzzed the crowds in Tahrir Square at least five times, low enough that, according to a CNN correspondent, the men in the cockpit could be seen. Tanks and trucks have been streaming toward Tahrir Square. Turkey and Libya are evacuating their nationaals. Le Monde is reporting that its correspondent at Tahrir Square said the military ("l'armée" French for the army, not the police forces) has used live ammunition against demonstrators. A helicopter with the presidential seal has been buzzing the crowd, too, extremely low, making intimidating maneuvers. Al-Jazeera's journalists in Egypt have had their credentials revoked. Egyptian television has been telling viewers to quit watching al-Jazeera.

None of this augurs well for what may happen next. The Egyptian government, what's left of it, is supposedly readying to announce the new cabinet in the next few hours, a cabinet made up primarily of military men. What this suggests is not a breakthrough at the top, but an attempt to maintain the essentials of the present government in place while perhaps removing Mubarak. It won't be regime change. It'll be a change of Mubarak. That's not what the masses are looking for.

On the ground, media--Le Monde, Al-Jazeera--are reporting mounting tensions. The protesters are not getting intimidated, although al-Jazeera is also reporting that army leaders have told the crowds that they will not go against them. "There's nothing to suggest that there is any confrontation between the soldiers and the crowds," an Al-Jazeera reporter is saying from the scene.

But events are changing hour by hour: the uncertainty on the ground is a reflection of the uncertainty within the Egyptian government, which appears to have no clue how to proceed next, just as it reflects an apparent cluelessness, and a severe lack of direction (as severe as a lack of conviction) from the Obama administration. At the highest levels of power, in the West and in Egypt, there is a wait-and-see attitude coupled with a desperate grasp for changelessness, while lawlessness is descending on Egyptian streets. It's a sort of lawlessness many Egyptians believe is being fomented by the government itself, so as to send a message to Egyptians that they need Mubarak and his government to restore order--and also to divert attention from the demonstrators, and heighten fear and anxiety.

In sum, no one can predict what will happen next. It's the nature of revolutions. It's also an indication that the situation can go in any number of directions. The military could turn its guns and open them on the demonstrators, as the Chinese government did against demonstrators at Tiananmen Square in Beijing in 1989. The throngs could also continue amplifying their demands. Mubarak could suddenly be declared gone: his sons and his wife have already decamped, gracelessly, to London. Mubarak could also leave, and if the demonstrators don't, violence could ensue.

Don't be surprised if the Israeli government, which is as anxious (let's be honest: freaked out is the more appropriate way to describe it) as the Obama administration, is providing Mubarak riot-control and suppression advice. This is the same Israeli government that has never hesitated to disproportionately assault civilian centers. The Egyptian government won't, either.

The words stay tuned have never carried more meaning in the Middle East. The Internet is still down, but you can keep up with the events live on CNN, but also and with more immediacy, and less filtering--and no commercial interruptions--on Al Jazeera. And if you read French, Le Monde is keeping a minute by minute account of the events on its front page, with videos and accounts from other sources as well. The Guardian is doing the same in English.

See Also:

• The Guardian's Feed
• Al-Jazeera's Live English Stream
• Egypt Awakes, Mubarak Thugs Up, Obama Freezes