Glossary: National Intelligence Estimates

Definition: National Intelligence Estimates are periodic, usually secret reports by the National Intelligence Council that sum up the consensus view of the American government's intelligence community on a particular issue. The intelligence community is made up of 16 intelligence agencies including the CIA, the FBI and the National Security Agency. About half the intelligence agencies are based in the Pentagon. The council falls under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, a cabinet post whose director reports to the president of the United States.

The National Intelligence Council was formed in 1973 to serve, according to an N.I.E. definition, as "a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on critical national security issues, and as a focal point for intelligence community collaboration. The NIC's goal is to provide policymakers with the best, unvarnished, and unbiased information--regardless of whether analytic judgments conform to U.S. policy."

National Intelligence Estimates are not necessarily accurate. A 2002 N.I.E. estimate concluded that Iraq was likely developing weapons of mass destruction. The estimate was used as the Bush Administration's justification for invading Iraq in 2003. The estimate proved wrong. In 2005, an N.I.E. report concluded that Iran was likely developing nuclear weapons. The N.I.E. reversed itself in December 2007, saying Iran halted its nuclear-weapons program in 2003.